Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.