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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.